Three points of analysis:

I. 2025-2027: Cost-driven price increase

Rising raw material prices: The prices of key materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium cobalt oxide are soaring, directly driving up battery costs.

Demand support: The new energy vehicle market continues to expand, with sales expected to reach 8 million units by 2030, boosting demand for lithium-ion battery materials.

Price range: The price of materials such as lithium carbonate is expected to rise from 50,000 yuan/ton to 80,000 yuan/ton.

II. After 2028: Technology-driven stability

Capacity release: Large-scale production reduces unit costs and alleviates price pressure.

Technological iteration: New technologies such as solid-state batteries are gradually being applied, which may change the market landscape.

III. Differentiated export markets

EU growth: Exports to the EU reached US$2.5 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42%.

US decline: Export value decreased by 44%, and the unit price fell by 22%.

Recommendation: Pay attention to fluctuations in raw material prices and the pace of capacity expansion; technological breakthroughs may bring unexpected variables.

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